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Threat Profile

Wildfires

Fire is a natural part of many ecosystems — but climate change is making wildfires larger, hotter and more frequent, with direct wildlife death tolls now reaching into the millions per event.

Published May 2026 Last reviewed July 2026 Evidence level Strong Reading time 6 min

Overview

Wildland fire is a naturally occurring, and often ecologically important, disturbance in many ecosystems. The concern here is not fire itself, but how climate change and land-use change are increasing fire frequency, severity, burned area and fire-season length well beyond historical norms.

Established fact

At least 16.9 million vertebrates were killed immediately by the 2020 Pantanal wildfires in Brazil — one of the clearest direct mortality counts available for a single wildfire event.

Source: peer-reviewed distance-sampling survey, PMC, 2021

Scale of Habitat Impact

4,400+vertebrate species whose existence is threatened by fire intensification combined with climate and land-use change
12.8%of sampled animals' total home-range area burned across 800+ fire events, 1990–2022
Established fact

California's 2020–2021 megafires burned across more than 10% of the geographic range of 100 vertebrate species, including 16 species of conservation concern, with high-severity fire specifically affecting 5–14% of their ranges.

Source: peer-reviewed study, PMC, 2023

Documented Impacts

Direct mortalityFast-moving, high-severity fires can kill animals directly at a scale of millions within a single fire event, as documented in the Pantanal.
Habitat loss and conversionVegetation loss during extreme fire seasons reduces available habitat area, disproportionately affecting species with small or already-fragmented ranges.
Feedback with climate changeFires release stored carbon, feeding back into the warming that increases fire risk in the first place — a dynamic also documented in the Arctic tundra's shift from carbon sink to source.
Editorial analysis

The distinction between fire as a natural ecosystem process and fire as an escalating threat is easy to lose in headline coverage. Many ecosystems — some pine forests, certain grasslands — depend on periodic fire for regeneration and would suffer from fire suppression. The concern documented here is specifically about intensification: larger, hotter, more frequent fires outside the range these ecosystems evolved with, not fire in general.

Uncertainty & Evidence Gaps

Direct wildlife mortality counts are only available for a small number of well-studied fire events; the true global toll from wildfires each year is not comprehensively tracked and is likely undercounted. Attributing any specific fire's severity to climate change specifically, versus land management or natural variability, requires careful attribution science and carries irreducible uncertainty at the level of individual events, even though the broader intensifying trend is well established.